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The global economy, facing the effects of COVID-19 in the form of disrupted supply chains, rising inflation and the escalation of the war in Ukraine is at risk of unfolding recession. The IMF states that more than a third of the world economy is expected to contract this or next year.

According to the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan for 9 months of 2022 the economic growth amounted to 2.8%. There is a fading of the monthly growth rates in industrial production: for January-September 2022 production growth amounted to only 2.1%, including the mining industry - 0.1%, manufacturing - 4.6%, water supply - 1%. A decrease in production volumes was also recorded in the supply of electricity by 0.4%. Agriculture grew by 6.9%, information and communications - by 6.7%, construction - by 5.1%, transport and warehousing - by 4.8%, trade - by 4.3%. The investments in fixed capital increased by 7%. Despite a weak recovery in supply chains, Kazakhstani exports increased by 1.5 times due to rising commodity prices in the first 8 months of 2022; despite the sanctions against Russia (38.5% in the structure of imports), imports increased by 15.6%.

AERC developed three scenarios in the aggregate demand model of the SMAF modeling system: A, B (Baseline), C. The baseline scenario was based on the following assumptions:

• Brent will average for 2022 at $102.09/bbl;
• economic growth of the countries-trading partners of Kazakhstan in 2022 - 1.1%;
• the oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan in 2022 is 84 million tons.

Under these conditions AERC estimates real GDP growth of Kazakhstan in 2022 under the aggregate supply model and aggregate demand model at 2.9% compared to 2021. The forecast for real GDP growth under the aggregate supply model coincided with the baseline for 2022 forecast of the aggregate demand model. For 2023 AERC forecasts the expansion of economic activity and the achievement of real GDP growth at 4.1% according to the aggregate demand model, and 3.9% according to the aggregate supply model. Inflation in the baseline scenario in 2022 will be 13.8%, in 2023 - 8.1%.

Авторы: Галия Исмурзина , Жаксыбек Кулекеев , Ай-Гуль Сейтенова , Данара Тілеуберген , Жаныбек Айгазин , Рустам Бекишев , Диас Кумарбеков , Гульнара Балгабекова , Гульмира Исимбаева , Асем Хусаинова , Евгения Пак , Галымжан Айтказин , Малика Шакер , Асхат Мухтарұлы , Асель Майданова , Ерасыл Серикбай , Алиана Жумашева