Fragmentation is increasingly shaping the global landscape, a process that has historically cycled in response to the conflicts of various blocs, as seen during events like the First and Second World Wars and the Cold War. The term "Global South" has become common, often referring to the BRICS countries, which seek to push their own agendas even when they conflict with the priorities of the G7. However, unlike the G-7, BRICS countries have divergent interests. The fear of a third world war is no longer a deterrent in defending these interests. Geopolitical crises—such as the war in Ukraine, tensions between Israel and Iran, and the Taiwan issue—are clearly intertwined with economic motivations.
In 2020, Stratfor forecasted that within the next decade, the world would shift back to a multipolar power structure, one that would lead to fluid alliances and a more competitive global landscape. These changes, they suggested, would also open new economic opportunities. Today, we are witnessing this prediction come to life. The key issue now is ensuring that the pursuit of these economic gains by their beneficiaries does not overshadow basic considerations of morality and ethics.
The fragmentation and polarization of global politics are mirrored in the world economy: while the U.S. economy and stock market appear poised to maximize their potential in the lead-up to the elections, China is struggling to boost its economic activity, which now seems sluggish compared to the last thirty years. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF upheld its global growth forecast but cautioned about rising downside risks amid increased political uncertainty. Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024-2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2023. Inflation is projected to slow down from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% next year. Additionally, the IMF highlights the risk posed by escalating public debt worldwide, especially in the U.S. and China, with Kristalina Georgieva describing it as a "mountain of borrowing" weighing down the global economy.
Fragmentation is increasingly shaping the global landscape, a process that has historically cycled in response to the conflicts of various blocs, as seen during events like the First and Second World Wars and the Cold War. The term "Global South" has become common, often referring to the BRICS countries, which seek to push their own agendas even when they conflict with the priorities of the G7. However, unlike the G-7, BRICS countries have divergent interests. The fear of a third world war is no longer a deterrent in defending these interests. Geopolitical crises—such as the war in Ukraine, tensions between Israel and Iran, and the Taiwan issue—are clearly intertwined with economic motivations.
In 2020, Stratfor forecasted that within the next decade, the world would shift back to a multipolar power structure, one that would lead to fluid alliances and a more competitive global landscape. These changes, they suggested, would also open new economic opportunities. Today, we are witnessing this prediction come to life. The key issue now is ensuring that the pursuit of these economic gains by their beneficiaries does not overshadow basic considerations of morality and ethics.
The fragmentation and polarization of global politics are mirrored in the world economy: while the U.S. economy and stock market appear poised to maximize their potential in the lead-up to the elections, China is struggling to boost its economic activity, which now seems sluggish compared to the last thirty years. In its October World Economic Outlook, the IMF upheld its global growth forecast but cautioned about rising downside risks amid increased political uncertainty. Global GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% in 2024-2025, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from 2023. Inflation is projected to slow down from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.3% next year. Additionally, the IMF highlights the risk posed by escalating public debt worldwide, especially in the U.S. and China, with Kristalina Georgieva describing it as a "mountain of borrowing" weighing down the global economy.
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