Monetary Policy in Kazakhstan: Adequacy and Prospects

Objective of the study:
To produce a comprehensive document assessing the adequacy of the monetary policy conducted by the National Bank of Kazakhstan since the transition to inflation targeting.

Research objectives:

1. Historical review of monetary policy
Identification of key stages in monetary policy development:

• the formation phase (1993–2003),
• the pre-inflation targeting period (2004–2015),
• the post-inflation targeting period (since 2015).

2–3. Analysis of monetary policy since the introduction of inflation targeting

• Institutional analysis: assessment of the formal mandate, objectives and functions of the National Bank, as well as the instruments and the Monetary Policy Strategy 2030.
• Empirical analysis: evaluation of the impact of monetary policy instruments on key macroeconomic indicators in the current period. This includes econometric modelling to quantify the factors affecting the achievement of monetary policy objectives and an analysis of policy responses to macroeconomic shocks.

4. Outlook and recommendations
Assessment of potential challenges and constraints affecting the effectiveness of monetary policy, including external risks, economic structure and the level of institutional development. Development of practical recommendations to enhance policy effectiveness.