Research objective:
To estimate the fiscal multiplier in order to measure the impact of government spending shocks on Kazakhstan's economic growth across different phases of the business cycle, as well as to analyze the country's overall fiscal (budgetary and tax) policy.
The study also examines the transmission mechanisms through which government spending affects household welfare. The research provides insights into the procyclicality of fiscal policy during specific periods under analysis, as well as the institutional factors constraining the effectiveness of the country's fiscal policy, as defined by the Tax and Budget Codes of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Research tasks:
1. Review methods for estimating fiscal multipliers, identify international best practices, and assess their applicability to Kazakhstan;
2. Compile time series data on macroeconomic indicators and government budget indicators;
3. Identify quantitative indicators for the econometric analysis of budget expenditures;
4. Develop a methodology for assessing the impact of budget expenditures on economic growth;
5. Conduct a quantitative estimation of fiscal multipliers using the selected model, both accounting for and without accounting for the phases of the business cycle, and perform a comparative analysis of the results;
6. Develop a replicable methodology for assessing the impact of fiscal shocks, enabling comparisons of the effects of allocated public funds on economic growth.
