AERC continues its monthly forecast for Brent crude oil prices. In this review, the forecast is presented until January 26, 2024. According to the results obtained, positive price dynamics with minor fluctuations for Brent oil are expected from December 15, 2023 to January 26, 2024.
AERC also provided a summary of the December IEA and OPEC reports. In December, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2023 at 2.46 million b/d and in 2024 at 2.25 million b/d from November. Total global oil demand is expected to average 102.1 million b/d in 2023 and 104.4 million b/d in 2024.
The IEA gives a less optimistic estimate of oil demand for 2023. A December IEA report forecast global oil demand will rise by 2.3 million b/d to 101.7 million b/d in 2023, but this masks the impact of further weakening macroeconomic climate. The slowdown will continue into 2024, with global oil demand growth halving to 1.1 million b/d as GDP growth in major economies remains below trend.
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