AERC continues to monitor the dynamics of the oil market and international forecasts. In its December report, OPEC lowered its forecast for oil demand in 2024 and 2025 for the fifth consecutive time. Member countries of the DoC (OPEC+) increased crude oil production by 323,000 b/d in November compared to October, reaching an average of about 40.7 million b/d.
At the same time, Kazakhstan also increased oil production in November, exceeding the established quota. According to the IEA, oil production in Kazakhstan in November exceeded the OPEC+ quota by 20,000 b/d, reaching 1.45 million b/d. The production recovery followed the completion of repair work at the key Kashagan field and the Atyrau refinery.
Despite this, AERC forecasts that at the beginning of next year, the trend in oil prices will remain in the upward range of $72.0-74.7 per barrel, provided there are no external geopolitical shocks.
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