The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) have revised their global oil demand growth forecasts for 2025–2026 downward. According to both reports, the adjustments reflect not only the data for the first quarter of 2025 but also the growing impact of trade tensions on the global economy.
In addition, both organizations downgraded their oil supply growth projections. The downward revisions stem from lower production volumes in the United States and Venezuela, as well as the effects of sharply declining prices and newly imposed trade tariffs, which are likely to hinder production expansion—particularly in the U.S. due to rising equipment and material costs.
Until April 2, oil futures had maintained a steady upward trend, in full alignment with AERC’s March forecast. However, the introduction of large-scale U.S. tariffs triggered a sharp market response. Investors expressed concerns about a potential slowdown in global economic growth, pushing oil prices down to their lowest levels since April 2021.
Despite these developments, OPEC has not announced any changes to its current policy. The OPEC+ committee once again emphasized the "critical importance" of member countries adhering to established production quotas and compensation schedules.
Given the current environment and in the absence of major geopolitical disruptions, AERC forecasts a downward trend in Brent crude prices, with prices expected to range between USD 63.13 and 66.33 per barrel.
