The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027 at 1.4 and 1.3 million b/d, respectively. Demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by 130 thousand b/d this year, while oil demand growth in non-OECD countries is forecast at around 1.3 million b/d.
OPEC's forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply in 2026 is 54.8 million b/d, and in 2027 – 55.5 million b/d, with the main contributions expected from Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand in 2026 is expected to decrease by 80 thousand b/d. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to decline by 1.5 million b/d in 2026.
Given the ongoing uncertainty, AERC expects the current price trend for Brent crude to remain within the range of $91.2-97.9/bbl in the short term. The average price is projected to be around $85.1/bbl.
For more details, see the Global Oil Market Overview.
