The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its latest report, OPEC revised the forecast for oil demand growth: lowered to 0.6 million b/d for 2026 and raised to 2.2 million b/d for 2027; the forecast for global supply remains unchanged.
The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by 4.3 million b/d in 2026 and to recover further by 8.3 million b/d in 2027. The demand growth forecast was corrected from the previous report.
Gulf countries restored oil production levels in June following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a sharp increase in global oil supply of 4.1 million b/d. International agencies forecast a significant oil surplus by the end of 2026, which will persist into 2027.
In July, the price of Brent crude reached a high of $94.3/bbl, which is the highest level since early June, and exceeded $100.0/bbl on some days. During the period under review, prices showed increased volatility within a range of about $15/bbl. The average price was $87.6/bbl, which is $10.8/bbl higher than the previous month's level.
In the short term, AERC expects the current price trend to continue within the range of $90.0–91.8/bbl, without significant fluctuations, provided there are no additional external shocks. The average price of Brent crude is forecast to be around $90.6/bbl, which is $9.4 per barrel higher than the previous estimate.
For more details, see the Global Oil Market Overview.
