The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027 at 1.4 and 1.3 million b/d, respectively. Demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by 150 thousand b/d this year, while oil demand growth in non-OECD countries is forecast at around 1.2 million b/d.
OPEC's forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply in 2026 is 54.8 million b/d, and in 2027 – 55.4 million b/d, with the main contributions expected from Brazil, Canada, the United States, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand growth in 2026 will amount to 850 thousand b/d. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to grow by 2.4 million b/d in 2026.
Under current conditions, AERC expects Brent prices to maintain an upward trajectory within the range of $68.2-73.0/bbl in the short term, with an average level projected at around $70.4/bbl.
