The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and 2027 at 1.4 and 1.3 million b/d, respectively. Demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by 150 thousand b/d this year, while oil demand growth in non-OECD countries is forecast at around 1.2 million b/d.
OPEC's forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply in 2026 is 54.8 million b/d, and in 2027 – 55.4 million b/d, with the main contributions expected from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 will amount to 850 and 930 thousand b/d, respectively. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to grow by 3.0 million b/d in 2025 and by 2.5 million b/d in 2026. The current growth in global oil demand reflects the normalization of economic conditions following last year’s tariff shocks, as well as lower oil prices compared to a year ago.
Given the current conditions, AERC forecasts Brent crude oil price dynamics to remain moderately volatile in the short term in the range of $63.0-67.2/bbl. The average price of Brent crude oil is forecast to be around $65.1/bbl.
