AERC continues to closely monitor the global oil market. In its June report, OPEC maintained its oil demand forecast for 2025: global demand is expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d to 105.1 mb/d. At the same time, OPEC+ countries increased oil production in June. Oil production by OPEC members alone reached 27.2 mb/d in June, up by 220.0 kb/d compared to May. Oil production by non-OPEC countries in June amounted to 14.3 mb/d, an increase of 129.0 kb/d month-on-month. Kazakhstan also continues to produce above its OPEC+ quota.
On July 5, 2025, OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected increase in target production levels for August (by 550.0 kb/d), effectively rolling back 80% of the voluntary cuts of 2.2 mb/d in place since 2023. Against this backdrop, AERC expects a downward trend in oil prices over the one-month horizon.
However, it remains important to keep monitoring the situation, as geopolitics introduces significant uncertainty. For instance, Iran has declared full military readiness for a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit chokepoint. On July 14, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that if Russia does not reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within the next 50 days, he will impose 100% secondary sanctions on any country continuing to purchase Russian exports.
