The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its latest report, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 to 0.8 million b/d, while raising its 2027 forecast to 1.9 million b/d. The global oil supply forecast remains unchanged from the previous report.
The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by 3.7 million b/d in 2026 before rebounding by 7.5 million b/d in 2027. According to the Agency, global oil demand is projected to decline by 1.0 million b/d in 2026 and increase by 2.0 million b/d in 2027.
Global oil supply rose by 4.1 million b/d in June, driven by a partial recovery in production in the Gulf countries following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the subsequent collapse of the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran triggered a renewed escalation and reduced oil shipments through the strait.
From June 17 to July 17, Brent crude prices were highly volatile amid the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran. Prices fell from $79.2/bbl to a low of $71.6/bbl before rebounding to $85.0/bbl. The average price over the period was $76.8/bbl. As exchanges of strikes between the United States and Iran intensified further, Brent crude reached $91.0/bbl by July 21.
In the short term, AERC expects a moderately downward price trend in the range of $80.5–$81.9/bbl, in the absence of any additional external shocks. The average price is projected be around $81.2/bbl, which is $1.0/bbl higher than the previous estimate.
For more details, see the Global Oil Market Overview.
