The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast of global oil demand for 2025-2026, while adjusting its forecast for oil supply growth downward. According to estimates by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the demand growth in OECD countries is expected to be lower compared to non-OECD countries. The primary growth drivers are expected to be China, India, and other Asian countries.
The IEA has adopted a more optimistic stance, which was evident in an upward adjustment of forecasts for both oil supply and demand in 2025 and 2026. Concurrently, the growth in global oil supply will significantly exceed the growth in demand, which should lead to an increase in global oil reserves.
In April, Kazakhstan reduced oil production, but the excess over the established OPEC+ quota is still significant. In turn, OPEC+ in May agreed an additional increase in oil production quotas.
AERC forecasts further decline in Brent crude oil prices in the short term to a range of $58.1-$65.1/bbl
