The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC revised downward the forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, while for 2027, it was upgraded. The oil supply forecast remains unchanged from the previous report.
IEA expects declines in both oil supply and demand in 2026: global supply projected to decrease by (-)3.9 million b/d and demand by (-)420 thous. b/d.
Ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have led to a record decline in global oil inventories.
The volume of suspended oil production has exceeded 14 million b/d, representing an unprecedented supply shock.
Benchmark global oil prices continue to exhibit high volatility amid conflicting signals regarding a ceasefire agreement in the U.S. and Iran war.
In the context of persistent instability, AERC expects the current price trend of Brent crude oil to remain at $103.9–116.2/bbl in the short term. At the same time, the average price is projected at around $110.00/bbl, which is $25.00/bbl higher than the previous estimate.
For more details, see the Global Oil Market Overview.
