The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 and 1.4 million b/d, respectively. Demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by 130 thousand b/d this year, while oil demand growth in non-OECD countries is forecast at around 1.2 million b/d.
OPEC's forecast for non-OPEC+ oil supply in 2025 is 54.1 million b/d, and in 2026 – 54.8 million b/d, with the main contributions expected from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 will amount to 790 and 770 thousand b/d, respectively. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to grow by 3.1 million b/d in 2025 and by 2.5 million b/d in 2026. Petrochemical feedstock continues to be the main driver of global demand growth, although its dynamics this year are significantly below expectations.
Given the current conditions, AERC forecasts Brent crude oil price dynamics to remain moderately volatile in the short term around $64.1/bbl.
