The production of liquid hydrocarbons in Kazakhstan decreased by 64,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, averaging 1.8 million barrels per day in August. Crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, averaging 1.5 million barrels per day. At the same time, the production of natural gas condensate and condensate decreased by 34,000 barrels per day compared to the previous month, averaging 0.3 million barrels per day. A 0.1 million barrels per day increase in liquid hydrocarbon supplies is projected for 2023, with an average volume of 1.9 million barrels per day, revised down by 10,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast. Oil production in August was disrupted primarily due to planned maintenance at the Tengiz field.
AERC constructs a weighted Brent oil price forecast based on four models. Data is collected on a daily basis, and the forecast is made for one month ahead. According to the results obtained, a positive trend in Brent oil prices is expected with slight fluctuations from October 18 to November 17. The price range is 87.9–96.5 dollars per barrel. The main information shocks are revisions in production volumes by OPEC+ member countries and the conflict in the Middle East.
