The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 and 1.4 million b/d, respectively. Demand in OECD countries is expected to increase by 130 thousand b/d this year, while oil demand growth in non-OECD countries is forecast at around 1.2 million b/d.
The outlook for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth also remained unchanged at 0.8 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026, with the main contributions expected from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand is projected to rise by 700 thousand b/d in both 2025 and 2026. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to grow by 3.0 million b/d in 2025 and by 2.4 million b/d in 2026. The petrochemical sector is expected to become the main driver of oil demand once again, while peak macroeconomic dynamics, increased energy efficiency of motor vehicles and the active spread of electric vehicles will restrain demand for petroleum products for road transport.
Given the current conditions, AERC forecasts Brent crude oil prices to stabilize in the short term around $63.4/bbl.
