The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its latest report, OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth to 0.2 million b/d for 2026 and raised it to 2.6 million b/d for 2027. Its forecast for oil supply from countries outside OPEC+ remains unchanged.
The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by 5.8 million b/d in 2026, followed by a recovery of 7.7 million b/d in 2027. Its demand growth forecasts were revised downward by 100 thous. b/d for 2026 and by 600 thous. b/d for 2027.
According to IEA estimates, global oil supply increased by 2.5 million b/d to 102.3 million b/d in September, driven primarily by Gulf producers. According to OPEC, OPEC+ countries increased crude oil production by 903 thous. b/d to around 39.1 million b/d. The largest production increases among participating countries were recorded in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, while Kuwait and Iran posted the largest declines. Global observed oil inventories fell by 10 million barrels in September.
Oil prices remained highly volatile. At the time this report was prepared, Brent crude was trading at around $107.2/bbl, while prices rose by $14.5/bbl during the period under review, reaching $109.9/bbl. The rise was driven by ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, supply disruptions, and increased purchases by Asian refineries amid record diesel prices.
In the short term, AERC expects Brent crude prices to remain within the range of $103.3-107.2/bbl, provided there are no additional external shocks. The average Brent crude price is forecast at around $104.5/bbl.
For more details, see the Global Oil Market Overview.
