The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 and 1.4 million b/d, respectively. According to the report, increased demand in OECD countries, particularly in the Americas and Europe, was offset by a slight decline in demand in the OECD Asia-Pacific region.
The outlook for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth also remained unchanged at 0.8 million b/d in 2025 and 0.6 million b/d in 2026, with the main contributions expected from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand is projected to rise by 740 thousand barrels per day in 2025 and 700 thousand barrels per day in 2026. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to grow by 2.7 million b/d in 2025 and by 2.1 million b/d in 2026. According to forecasts, global reserves may increase by an average of 2.5 million b/d in the second half of 2025, which is an unsustainable level, as supply significantly exceeds demand.
On 13 September, US President Donald Trump announced his readiness to impose “severe sanctions” against Russia if NATO countries stop purchasing Russian oil and impose agreed trade tariffs against China.
Taking into account current trends and key market factors, AERC forecasts moderately downward trajectory for Brent crude oil prices in the range of $65.4-$68.3/bbl.
