The inflation rate in February 2023 rose by 21.3% year-on-year basis, while the price level in the country rose by 1.3% over the month. The main driver for escalating the annual price level comprise food products, which rose by 25,7% year-on-year basis. In January, having monthly inflation of 1,1%, the annual inflation rate amounted to 20,7%. Meanwhile, the prices for food products increased by 25,7%.
AERC expanded its estimation of March inflation. Thus, the inflation rate in March is predicted to be at 18.41% (YoY) or 1.19% (MoM), whereas in February the AERC forecast for March was 17.84% (YoY) and 0.95% (MoM). Nevertheless, AERC anticipates the slowdown of annual and monthly inflation in March 2023.
The AERC March inflation estimation takes into account the weekly price data for major Kazakhstan food categories. According to the BNS ASPR RK, its prices have already risen on average by 15.3% by 20 March 2023 compared to 24 March 2022, while from the beginning of this year the price for major Kazakhstan food categories climbed to 3.3%.
April 2023
Taking into account actual inflation data for February and revaluation of inflation in March, AERC forecasts inflation in April at 17.3% (YoY) or 1.05% (MoM). The current inflation forecast for April is higher than the previous one, but lower for March. The slowdown of inflation in April this year compared to March is still expected against the high base of last year (inflation in April 2022 = 2.0% (MoM)).
May 2023.
AERC forecasts monthly inflation to accelerate to 1.27% in May. However, annual inflation will continue to steadily dismount to 17.15% on a year-on-year basis amidst the high base of 2022.
Most of the external factors of inflation in Kazakhstan for the coming months show a reversal from disinflationary to pro-inflationary effects.
The internal factors of inflation for the forecast period are disinflationary.
