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In July 2026, inflationary pressures in Kazakhstan eased somewhat: annual inflation declined to 10.2%, while monthly inflation slowed to 0.6%. At the same time, households’ inflation expectations fell noticeably. However, core inflation remains elevated at 11.3%, pointing to persistent domestic price pressures and suggesting that the disinflationary trend has yet to become firmly established.
In the foreign exchange market, the tenge appreciated against the US dollar in July and the first half of August, supported in part by the quarterly tax payment period. At the same time, excess tenge liquidity in the banking system persists: the TONIA rate continues to trade close to the lower bound of the base-rate corridor despite measures by the National Bank to absorb surplus liquidity.
The external inflation environment remains mixed. Inflation in Russia eased somewhat in July, while inflation in the euro area accelerated and global food prices resumed their upward trend. The future path of regulated tariffs and fuel prices remains an additional source of uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, AERC expects annual inflation to continue slowing in the second half of the year, reaching 9.5% by end-2026, although monthly inflation is likely to remain elevated and volatile.
At the same time, credit activity in the financial sector strengthened, driven primarily by lending to businesses. International reserves declined markedly in June, mainly due to a fall in the market value of gold.
