In November, the monthly price growth rate was 0.8% (MoM), while the annual inflation rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 12.4% (YoY). However, core and seasonally adjusted inflation exhibit mixed dynamics, devoid of a clear downward trend, suggesting that the observed slowdown in annual inflation is attributed to administrative and seasonal factors.
External factors remain broadly disinflationary, while money supply growth remains moderate. AERC expects inflation to reach 0.69% (MoM) or 12.14% (YoY) in December. In January and February 2026, annual inflation is expected to slow down to 11.68% (YoY) and 10.82% (YoY), respectively.
In November, the anticipated inflation rate for the subsequent 12 months remained at 13.6%, while long-term (5-year ahead) expectations continued to rise, reaching 14.9%.
Although 12-month-ahead inflation expectations declined from 13.6% in August to 13.2% in September, they remain significantly above the actual inflation rate. Five-year inflation expectations stood at 14.0%, remaining above short-term expectations. Meanwhile, expectations among professional market participants continued to rise.
By mid-December, the earlier strengthening of the tenge against the US dollar was followed by a partial correction. The RUB/KZT pair continued to trade within a narrow horizontal corridor, fluctuating within ±4%. In October, FX market turnover decreased by 6.7% (MoM), while the share of FX sales by the National Bank and quasi-sovereign entities rose from 30.3% to 33.9%.
As of 1 November 2025, international reserves amounted to $60.4 billion, an increase of 5.3% over the month. Meanwhile, gold continues to strengthen its position as the largest reserve asset.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
