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Inflation continues to decelerate. In April 2026, annual inflation slowed from 11.0% (YoY) to 10.6% (YoY). Nevertheless, monthly inflation accelerated to 0.8% (MoM) and remains elevated.
Inflation expectations are declining but remain pro-inflationary.
The base rate was kept unchanged. The National Bank (NB) has once again noted that there is insufficient room for monetary policy easing amid persistent inflationary risks. Concurrently, the regulator’s rhetoric has softened.
The tenge continues to strengthen against the US dollar. At the same time, the national currency’s appreciation has been accompanied by a decline in the share of foreign currency sales by the National Bank and quasi-state companies. Conversely, the tenge's appreciation against the Russian ruble was temporary.
AERC forecast. Inflationary factors remain contradictory. Under these conditions, according to AERC forecasts, no significant slowdown in annual inflation is expected over the next three months: by July 2026, inflation is projected to reach 10.43% (YoY) or 0.72% (MoM).
Kazakhstan’s international reserves have declined. The decline in reserves is largely due to the correction in global gold prices in April, which accounts for about 78% of Kazakhstan's reserve assets.
The credit market is undergoing a shift in the composition of new loans. There has been a moderate shift towards the corporate segment in new lending flows since last year: in April 2026, business loans accounted for 56% of new loans issued by the banking sector.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
