CURRENT PRICE INCREASES
The increase in oil prices can be attributed to several factors. Global oil markets have experienced the largest supply deficit in the past 10 years, exceeding 3 million barrels per day. This has resulted from Saudi Arabia's decision to extend production restrictions until the end of this year, leading to a reduction in oil production. Currently, oil inventories in developed countries are 114 million barrels below the average for the period from 2015 to 2019.
Traders are anticipating the monthly reports from OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) on the oil market. These reports will contain vital information about the current oil market situation and may have a significant impact on future price trends.
Therefore, the market is awaiting new data and signals to determine its response to changes in oil supply. In the near future, prices may fluctuate around $90 per barrel. Over the past two weeks, the prices of Brent and WTI crude oil have increased significantly, rising by more than 7% and 10%, respectively.
CHINA AND INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY
The recovery of China's industry has a substantial impact on the global oil market and, consequently, oil prices. Data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate significant growth in industrial production in China. In August, this indicator grew by 4.5% compared to the previous year, surpassing analysts' expectations and marking the fastest growth since April.
These optimistic data suggest that recent measures to support the economy are beginning to bear fruit. JP Morgan has already raised its GDP growth forecast for China for 2023 from 4.8% to 5%. This move reflects confidence in the Chinese economy and its ability to recover after a period of uncertainty.
It is also worth noting that ANZ has increased its growth forecast for China, the world's second-largest economy, by 0.2 percentage points, to 5.1% for the current year. This further confirms confidence in the prospects of the Chinese economy. The increase in industrial activity in China directly impacts global demand for energy resources.
