Inflation in Kazakhstan in July 2023.
Inflation in Kazakhstan amounted to 14% in July 2023 compared to July 2022 (expected inflation was 14.17%). The monthly consumer price index rose in July and amounted to 0.6% compared with 0.5% in June. A slight increase in monthly inflation in July is associated with a summer increase in utility prices. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, in annual terms, prices for food products increased by 13.5% (in June 2023 – 14.6%), for non–food products by 15% (in June 2023 - 15.8%), for paid services - by 13.6% (in June 2023 – 13.3%). Last year's high base significantly impacted the slowdown in inflation (inflation was 1.1% (MoM) in July 2022).
Assessment of inflation in Kazakhstan in August 2023.
AERC revised the previous estimate of inflation for August towards a slight decrease. AERC forecasts the inflation rate in August at 13.09% (YoY) or 0.56% (MoM) against 13.29% (YoY) and 0.61% (MoM) in the previous survey. The slight decrease in the estimate is due to the actual figures for June and July, which were lower than the previous AERC estimate.
Inflation forecast for September 2023.
Considering the actual inflation data for July and the revaluation of inflation for August, AERC forecasts inflation in September at 11.82% (YoY) or 0.66% (MoM). The current AERC forecast is slightly lower than the previous inflation estimates: 12.07% (YoY) or 0.71% (MoM). But AERC still expects monthly inflation to accelerate in September. However, the rate of acceleration of monthly inflation has been revised downward due to the depreciation of the ruble, which reduces the cost of imports of goods from Russia to Kazakhstan. It is important to note that according to the results of the first 5 months of 2023, the share of imports from Russia is still high - 26.7%.
Inflation forecast for October 2023.
Taking into account the inflation forecast for August and September 2023, AERC forecasts a further slowdown in annual inflation to the level of 10.74% in October 2023. AERC expects the monthly inflation rate to be 0.62% in October 2023.
Read more at the "DOWNLOAD" link
