Inflation in Kazakhstan amounted to 15.9% in May 2023 compared to May 2022. The monthly consumer price index slowed in May and amounted to 0.6% compared to 0.9% in April. According to the Committee on Statistics of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, in annual terms, prices for food products increased by 16.5%, non–food products – by 17.2%, and paid services - by 13.5%. The high base of last year had a big impact on reducing inflation (inflation was 1.4% (MoM) in May last year). In the previous inflation forecast, AERC estimated annual inflation in May at 16.23%, which turned out to be slightly higher than the actual data.
In the current review, AERC revised the inflation estimate for June towards a slight decrease. Thus, AERC forecasts inflation in June at the level of 14.70% (YoY) or 0.57% (MoM) against 15.22% (YoY) and 0.7% (MoM) in the previous review. The slight decrease in the estimate is due to the actual figures for May, which were lower than the previous AERC estimate, and a steady decline in inflation for the third month in a row. It is also worth considering the high base of the last year: inflation in June 2022 was 1.6% (MoM).
Taking into account the actual inflation data for May and the revaluation of inflation for June, AERC forecasts inflation in July at the level of 14.38% (YoY) or 0.82% (MoM). The current AERC forecast is slightly lower than the previous inflation estimates: 14.98% (YoY) or 0.9% (MoM).
Taking into account the inflation forecast for June and July 2023, AERC forecasts a further decline in inflation in August to the level of 13.57%. It is important to note that at the same time, AERC forecasts an increase in monthly inflation in July and August compared to previous months due to an increase in housing and communal services tariffs since July of this year.
