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Economic Growth Accelerates, but Tax Revenues Struggle to Keep Pace
Kazakhstan’s economic growth continued to accelerate in the first half of 2026. According to preliminary data, GDP growth reached 4.1% YoY in January–June 2026, while the Short-Term Economic Indicator rose to 105.1%. Manufacturing, where output increased by 9.8% YoY, and construction, which expanded by 15.2% YoY, remain the key drivers of economic activity.
At the same time, stronger economic activity has yet to fully translate into tax revenues. State budget revenue execution stood at 99.0% of the plan in January–June, slightly down from 99.1% in January–May 2026. Performance varied considerably across budget levels: republican budget revenue execution improved to 100.7%, while the corresponding figure for local budgets declined to 97.4%. Tax revenue execution at the local budget level deteriorated more markedly, falling from 97.2% in January–May to 93.7% in January–June 2026. Moreover, corporate income tax (CIT) revenues from small and medium-sized businesses to local budgets decreased by 10.6% YoY compared with the first half of 2025.
Meanwhile, developments in the oil sector remain mixed. Oil and gas condensate production has been gradually recovering from the decline recorded earlier in the year, reaching 8.6 million tonnes in June. Nevertheless, total production amounted to 45.6 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, remaining 8.4% below the level recorded a year earlier. At the same time, Kazakhstan continues to significantly exceed its permitted production levels when compensation obligations under the OPEC+ framework are taken into account.
Investment activity, by contrast, is gaining momentum. In January–June, fixed capital investment increased by 9.6% YoY in real terms. The structure of financing is also shifting: amid a decline in budget financing, the role of companies’ own funds and borrowed resources is increasing.
Foreign trade dynamics remain mixed. Data from Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics indicate that growth in total foreign trade turnover slowed in January–May 2026, while more timely data from the State Revenue Committee point to an acceleration in trade with non-EAEU countries in January–June. Imports continue to grow faster than exports, while the geographical structure of crude oil exports shows some reorientation away from European destinations towards selected Asian markets.
The latest issue of AERC Socio-Economic Development also draws attention to the availability and timeliness of macroeconomic and fiscal statistics. In recent months, the publication frequency of certain indicators has been reduced: data on real household monetary income have shifted from a monthly to a quarterly publication schedule, while the Ministry of Finance has yet to publish data on National Fund inflows and withdrawals for April–June and the second quarter of 2026. As a result, the scope for timely assessment of current economic developments has become more limited in several areas.
Read more about developments in the state budget and the National Fund, economic growth, the oil sector, investment, and foreign trade in the August issue of AERC Socio-Economic Development.
