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State budget revenue performance improved, but regional revenues are declining and the deficit remains well above last year’s level. In January-August 2026, revenue reached 98.2% of plan, compared with 97.1% in January-July, including 100.2% for the republican budget and 96.5% for local budgets. The main driver was an improvement in tax revenue performance from 96.1% to 97.7% of plan. Republican budget tax revenue reached 100.3% of plan, supported by payments for the use of natural and other resources exceeding the target by 75.7%, while value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax (CIT) receipts remained 7.2% and 1.5% below plan, respectively.
Meanwhile, local budget revenues declined by 7.0% (YoY), and transfers from the republican budget fell by 16.2% (YoY). Regions remain dependent on transfers. In nine regions, transfers exceeded tax revenue, while in four southern regions they accounted for 72-79% of revenue.
National Fund assets continue to grow, supported by inflows and investment returns. At the end of August, foreign currency assets reached $67.2 billion, up by 5.1% since the beginning of the year. Around 95% of the August increase came from net inflows, excluding investment income. Since the beginning of the year, investment activity and the positive balance between receipts and the use of funds contributed an estimated 54% and 46% of the increase, respectively. Higher oil export values are supporting oil revenues.
Growth in the key sectors remained steady, despite mixed sectoral performance. Oil and gas production declined by 8.3% and 9.9% (YoY), respectively. Manufacturing output grew by 8.4% (YoY), despite a 2.7% (YoY) decline in metallurgy. Construction maintained growth of 15.6% (YoY), while trade and passenger turnover continued to expand. Rail freight turnover growth slowed from 2.5% to 1.7% (YoY), and pipeline freight turnover declined by 2.4% (YoY).
The recovery in oil production in August widened the overshoot of the OPEC+ quota. Oil and gas condensate production increased to 8.5 million tonnes in August from 7.6 million tonnes in July. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), crude oil production reached 1.90 million barrels per day (b/d), exceeding the OPEC+ quota by 282,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the cartel kept Kazakhstan’s November quota at 1.628 million b/d, while the combined output of 18 participants in August remained 7.26 million b/d below their aggregate quota.
Investment growth accelerated despite a further decline in budget funding. Fixed capital investment increased by 8.1% (YoY) in real terms. Enterprises’ own funds contributed 7.0 percentage points (p.p.) to growth, while bank loans and other borrowed funds contributed 4.3 p.p. Budget funding fell by 28.9% (YoY) in nominal terms, making a negative contribution of 3.2 p.p. Investment in manufacturing increased by 39.9% (YoY), while investment in mining declined by 3.9% (YoY).
Foreign trade benefited from higher oil prices. In January-August 2026, the value of crude oil and crude petroleum product exports to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) increased by 16.3% (YoY), despite a 3.6% (YoY) decline in shipment volumes, indicating that higher prices offset the fall in volumes.
Read more in the Socio-Economic Development Review.
