Файл доступен для скачивания (ссылка внизу страницы)
The findings of this study make it possible to systematize the key factors affecting monetary policy and to propose recommendations for strengthening the monetary policy toolkit. In particular, the estimates show that inflation expectations respond statistically significantly in the short term to changes in the exchange rate, while no significant response to actual inflation has been identified. Such a pattern of expectations points to their weak anchoring and sensitivity to external shocks, as well as low public confidence in official inflation figures. The weak anchoring of inflation expectations complicates the conduct of monetary policy, underscoring the need to further strengthen the National Bank’s communication policy aimed at improving households’ and businesses’ understanding of the relationship between the base rate, inflation, and the exchange rate, as well as the role of monetary policy in stabilizing prices.
As elevated inflation expectations among households and businesses have been a persistent problem, the regulator has adopted a course aimed at reducing and stabilizing them. The strategy through 2030 explicitly identifies reducing and anchoring inflation expectations as a priority. Improving the National Bank’s communications, explaining policy decisions, and adopting a more transparent forecasting approach are viewed as tools for managing expectations. It is assumed that once economic agents gain confidence in low inflation over the long term, the response of markets and prices will become more restrained even in the face of external shocks.
The analysis also shows that the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Kazakhstan is functioning, although its effectiveness varies considerably across different stages of transmission. The transmission of the base rate signal is most consistently observed in the money market. Empirical estimates also show that higher deposit rates lead to a statistically significant increase in tenge-denominated savings by households and businesses, indicating that the interest rate channel has a fairly clear impact on the behavior of economic agents by encouraging savings.
At the same time, the further transmission of the interest rate signal to lending volumes and aggregate demand remains less robust. Studies by the National Bank of Kazakhstan identify a statistically significant response of lending volumes only in certain segments and predominantly over a short horizon, while for a substantial share of consumer lending, a persistent interest rate effect has not been confirmed. Against this background, the socioeconomic characteristics of household behavior are particularly important: the persistent gap between household income and final consumption expenditure, the high share of food expenditure in total spending, and the resulting limited ability of part of the population to accumulate long-term savings may weaken the sensitivity of consumer demand to changes in interest rate conditions. Thus, the effectiveness of interest rate policy is determined not only by the quality of signal transmission within the financial sector, but also by structural characteristics of the economy that lie beyond the direct influence of the central bank.
The issue of coordination between monetary and fiscal policy also warrants particular attention. The analysis shows that fiscal policy was procyclical in most of the cases examined. At the same time, over the past two years, the fiscal impulse has become countercyclical. However, this may be due to the fact that part of fiscal stimulus is implemented through quasi-fiscal instruments that are not directly reflected in government budget indicators. The presence of expansionary fiscal policy amid strong economic growth and high inflation constitutes a constraint on monetary policy.
Thus, the effectiveness of monetary policy in Kazakhstan faces a number of constraints, some of which are related to structural problems in the economy, while others are associated with the need to further improve communication policy. In light of the above, the AERC study sets out key recommendations for monetary policy.
