Kazakhstan’s Macroeconomic Overview, March 2022

AERC informs that there is no forecast of main macroeconomic indicators in the Ka­zakhstan Macroeconomic Overview from April 2022. Two geopolitical shocks - the 2022 Ka­zakh Unrest and the Russia’s invasion of Ukrai­ne - threatening the stablity of Kazakhstan’s economy, undermined the ability of standard econometric models to make reliable fore­cast*. At the same time, the announcement of inaccurate predictions is not consistent with the honesty and objectivity that is the principle of scientific research, which AERC adheres to.

Instead, AERC provides in the Macroecono­mic Overview a thorough analysis of the con­sequences of the Russia’s war with Ukraine for Kazakhstan’s economy.

* The reasons for econometric models’ bad predictions are distorted data on Kazakhstan’s economy for the period January-February 2022. the lack of updated estimates of the world economic growth and Kazakhstan’s main trading part­ners’s performance by IMF and WB, rapidly changing energy prices, etc.