AERC continues to forecast prices for Brent oil, simultaneously monitoring the dynamics of oil supply and demand, IEA and OPEC forecasts, as well as oil production volumes in Kazakhstan. Thus, according to the June OPEC report, oil production in Kazakhstan in May amounted to 1.51 million bpd. For comparison, in April, Kazakh production amounted to 1.57 million bpd. Thus, in May, Kazakhstan reduced oil production by 62 thousand bpd compared to April - the largest reduction among non-OPEC countries after Russia. However, the volume of Kazakhstan’s oil production still remains above the OPEC quota. According to S&P Global Insight, Kazakhstan's oil production volume in May according to the quota should have been 1.48 million bpd. Kazakhstan promised to compensate for the excess oil production by September 2025.
Which countries have yet violated the quota, what are the expectations for oil supply and demand from the IEA and OPEC in the June reports, as well as our oil price forecast for the month ahead - read more in the attached file
