The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026 at 1.3 mb/d. The outlook for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth also remained broadly unchanged at 0.8 mb/d in 2025 and 0.7 mb/d in 2026, with the main contributions expected from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand is projected to rise by 720 thousand barrels per day in 2025 and 740 thousand barrels per day in 2026, which is 20 thousand barrels per day lower than previous estimates. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to grow by 1.8 mb/d in 2025 and by 1.1 mb/d in 2026, significantly outpacing demand growth and potentially leading to an accumulation of global oil inventories.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has heightened concerns over potential supply disruptions, which has been promptly reflected in market prices.
Taking into account current trends and key market factors, AERC forecasts moderately upward trajectory for Brent crude oil prices in the range of $76.8-$79.4/bbl.
