The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC revised downward the forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, while for 2027, it was upgraded. The oil supply forecast remains unchanged from the previous report.
IEA expects declines in both oil supply and demand in 2026: global supply projected to decrease by (-)3.9 million b/d and demand by (-)1.1 million b/d.
Signed on June 19 agreement between the U.S. and Iran creates conditions for the resumption of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and an easing of global oil market tensions.
During the period under review, beginning on May 18, the price of Brent crude oil fell sharply from a high of $107.5/bbl to a low of $78.9/bbl. The average price was $94.2/bbl.
In the short term, AERC expects the current price trend for Brent crude to remain in the range of $77.4-82.9/bbl, in the absence of any external shocks. The average price is projected to be around $80.2/bbl, which is $29.8/bbl lower than the previous estimate.
For more details, see the Global Oil Market Overview.
