The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its latest report, OPEC revised the forecast for oil demand growth: lowered to 0.4 million b/d for 2026 and raised to 2.4 million b/d for 2027; the forecast for global supply remains unchanged.
The IEA expects global oil supply to decline by 5.7 million b/d in 2026 and to recover further by 8.0 million b/d in 2027. The demand growth forecast was corrected from the previous report.
In August, global oil supply fell by 1.6 million b/d to 100.1 million b/d amid continued supply disruptions and elevated geopolitical risks. At the same time, OPEC+ countries increased crude oil production by 297 thous. b/d to around 38.1 million b/d. The largest production increases were recorded in Iraq and Kazakhstan, while Iran and Russia posted the largest declines. Global observed oil stocks fell by a further 95 million barrels in August.
Oil prices remained highly volatile. At the time this report was prepared, Brent crude was trading at around $105.8/bbl, while prices ranged from $95.2/bbl to $108.8/bbl during the period under review. The rise in prices was driven by tighter supply due to disruptions in the Middle East and Russia, as well as a shift in demand toward crude from the Atlantic Basin.
In the short term, AERC expects Brent crude prices to remain within the range of $98.7–104/bbl, provided there are no additional external shocks. The average Brent crude price is forecast at around $100.2/bbl.
For more details, see the Global Oil Market Overview.
