The contemporary global landscape is characterized by a transition towards a new technological paradigm, a phenomenon that can be described in scientific terms as a "bifurcation point." The future appears more uncertain than ever, instilling both anxiety and hope among the public. As a result, expectations are mounting for leaders who may emerge as either creators or disruptors. A key question remains: will the new U.S. president serve as a catalyst for global progress or a source of instability? At the same time, significant hopes are pinned on the potential resolution of the war in Ukraine.
The global agenda in 2025 will undoubtedly be shaped by the actions of the new U.S. administration. Historical parallels and contexts, as outlined in the section "Details: The Truman-Trump Show: cycles of history in the mirror of leadership" illustrate how Donald Trump’s return to power could substantially influence the global order. The term "MAGA-nomics," encapsulating Trump's blend of economic and political approaches, is poised to shape medium-term global trends.
Trump’s return to power is expected to further amplify the influence of the technological oligarchy, represented by Silicon Valley firms. On the one hand, this will drive artificial intelligence adoption and technological progress; on the other, it risks exacerbating social inequality. The contradictory nature of Trump's rhetoric may further destabilize the already fragile global financial and economic system—ranging from aggressive protectionism and anti-immigration policies to populist proposals such as annexing Canada, seizing Greenland and the Panama Canal, and renaming the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is essential to remember that Trump’s persona is fundamentally rooted in business, meaning every decision will be evaluated through a cost-benefit lens.
In its January edition of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF revised its global growth forecast for 2025 upwards from 3.2% to 3.3%. However, this growth is expected to be uneven, with stronger prospects for the U.S. but declining economic activity in several advanced economies. While global inflation is expected to decline, advanced economies are projected to reach their target levels faster than emerging markets and developing economies. The IMF highlights the significant dependence of global risks on U.S. economic policies and notes the suspension of monetary policy tightening, which will have implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability.
Kazakhstan’s economy showed overall positive performance in 2024, despite economic activity contracting in the first half of the year. The government projects real GDP growth of approximately 5% for 2024. However, the high real GDP growth rates, alongside proxy indicators such as IDA and KEI, suggest overheating risks. In our previous review, we highlighted concerns over the unsustainable nature of Kazakhstan’s economic expansion.
The primary growth drivers remain construction and the services sector. Inflation trended downward throughout the year, yet early monetary easing led to its acceleration in Q4 2024. Inflation will remain a key macroeconomic challenge in 2025, influenced by both external (sanctions, ruble shocks, and Russian inflation) and internal factors (tariff-for-investment policy, deregulation of fuel prices, high money supply, fiscal stimulus, and increased oil output under the PBR framework). The coordination of fiscal and monetary policies and the inefficacy of fiscal rules have finally become subjects of serious debate within Kazakhstan’s policymaking circles.
In this review, the AERC has revised its 2025 economic growth forecast for Kazakhstan upward compared to its October Macroeconomic Outlook. According to the aggregate demand model, GDP growth is projected at 4.6% (previously 4.0%), driven by a significant increase in gross capital formation, moderate household consumption expansion, and an upward revision of fiscal stimulus. The supply-side model forecasts GDP growth at 4.5% (previously 4.0%).
Considering inflationary pressures from external and domestic factors, the AERC has downgraded its 2025 annual average inflation forecast to 7.0% (previously 6.7%). However, further upward revisions may be warranted if inflationary risks intensify. Tax revenue shortfalls remain a key concern for 2025, necessitating continued substantial withdrawals from the National Fund. These withdrawals will enable the government to contain the fiscal deficit at (-)2.3% of GDP in 2025 (previously expected at (-)4.2%). A sharp rise in imports, coupled with a widening services trade deficit, is projected to worsen the current account deficit to (-)8.0% of GDP (previously projected at (-)5.2%).
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