The 2025 has solidified what was once considered a temporary glitch: geopolitical turbulence is now the permanent backdrop of the global economy. The dawn of 2026 confirms that this “new normal” is here for the long haul. The U.S. special operation in Venezuela to apprehend Nicolás Maduro represents the culmination of a years-long pressure campaign – ranging from sanctions and diplomatic isolation to cyber interventions – and serves as a stark revival of the Monroe Doctrine in its most assertive, revanchist form.
Once again, Venezuelan oil has become a geopolitical trophy, and American energy interests have morphed into a tool of foreign policy coercion. While this aggression might seem paradoxical given the projected global oil surplus and Venezuela’s modest market share, the logic becomes clearer when viewed through a historical lens (see Details. Venezuela and Global Oil Markets: Factors of Uncertainty). The cover of this review, depicting a “chess match” where oil is the central piece and rules are dictated by “might is right”, reflects this reality.
Nevertheless, despite the geopolitical chaos, the global economy demonstrates surprising “resilience”. In the January WEO, the IMF raised its global growth estimate for 2025 to 3.3% (from 3.2%) and maintained the same forecast for 2026. This reflects a situation where positive factors, such as increased investment in technology and the adaptability of the private sector, outweigh the negative impact of rising global protectionism in world trade. In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank also notes the resilience of the global economy to shocks, though it provides more restrained growth estimates: 2.7% for 2025 and 2.6% for 2026.
Asymmetry prevailed in the commodity market throughout 2025. Energy resources became cheaper for two consecutive quarters, while silver, gold, and copper reached new records. With the oil market remaining in surplus, OPEC+ countries recently decided not to increase quotas for the first quarter of 2026. Consequently, medium-term prospects for global oil prices do not yet inspire optimism for net exporters.
Against this backdrop, Kazakhstan demonstrated a record real GDP growth of 6.5% (YoY) at the end of 2025, the highest since 2011. However, the structure of this growth is concerning, as its primary drivers remain non-tradable sectors – specifically transport, trade, and construction. This is a classic symptom of intensifying “Dutch disease”, where the expansion of extractive industries is accompanied by the accelerated growth of non-tradable sectors. Although oil production reached record highs in 2025, it has not improved the state of the current account; the country's exports are stagnating in value terms due to an overall deterioration in the terms of trade. In addition, metal extraction and processing remain depressed, further weakening the foreign trade balance.
The proactive economic policy announced by the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and large-scale infrastructure projects are supporting a positive fiscal impulse. However, the market investment attractiveness of these projects is being questioned given the high cost of capital. Price growth over the past year reached double digits due to fiscal policy expansion, the implementation of the MEUS national project, the liberalization of fuel and lubricant prices, and the high inflationary expectations associated with these factors.
Deepening global uncertainty and trade wars will continue to exert downward pressure on commodity prices, creating an unfavourable external environment for Kazakhstan’s economy. Simultaneously, political reforms announced at the Kurultai in early 2026 are becoming a source of internal turbulence. Against this background, AERC forecasts economic growth for 2026 at 4.8% based on the aggregate supply model and 4.9% based on the aggregate demand model.
Despite the pro-inflationary nature of certain provisions in the new Tax Code, inflationary pressure will be partially neutralized by the suspension of the MEUS project, the freeze on fuel and lubricant price liberalization until the end of the first quarter of 2026, and the tightening of general monetary conditions. This tightening includes an increase in the minimum reserve requirements (MRR) and an increase in the limit on short-term note issuances by the National Bank of Kazakhstan. Under these conditions, AERC forecasts an average annual inflation rate of 9.5%, a decrease from the 11.4% recorded in 2025.
The state budget deficit in 2026 is projected to be (-)3.3% of GDP. Furthermore, the current account deficit is expected to widen to (-)4.3% of GDP, driven by faster growth in imports compared to exports.
