In July, monthly inflation slowed to 0.7% m/m. At the same time, annual inflation remained unchanged at 11.8% (YoY).
External inflationary factors remain mixed, while domestic factors are predominantly pro inflationary. AERC expects inflation in August to reach 0.78% (MoM) or 11% (YoY). By October, these figures are projected to reach 0.79% (MoM) and 12.3% (YoY).
One-year ahead inflation expectations increased from 12.6% in June to 14.2% in July. Long-term expectations also rose, reaching 14.7%, and continue to exceed short-term expectations.
In mid-July, the USD/KZT exchange rate rose sharply, reaching 543, driven by seasonal factors and a reduced share of FX sales by the National Bank and quasi-sovereign companies. On 30 July, the National Bank conducted FX interventions totaling USD 125.6 million.
Kazakhstan's reserve assets reached $51.8 billion. Gold remains the largest component at USD 32.3 billion, with its value increasing by 2% due to physical accumulation.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
