Despite a slight slowdown in annual inflation, there are no convincing signs of a sustained downward trend. As of the end of January 2026, annual inflation remained high, with only a marginal slowdown. The dynamics of core and seasonally adjusted inflation are showing even more subdued trends, indicating ongoing inflationary pressure. At the same time, monthly inflation has accelerated over the past four months.
In January, both short-term and long-term inflation expectations decreased. Despite this, pro-inflationary sentiments among the population remain strong.
Inflationary factors are controversial. On the one hand, positive signals are coming from the strengthening national currency, the declared reduction in fiscal impulse, and the continuing slowdown in global food inflation. On the other hand, accelerating inflation in Russia and sharp growth in money supply at the end of the previous year are pro-inflationary factors.
The strengthening of the tenge was accompanied by a decline in trading volumes on the domestic currency market. Concurrently, relative volumes of foreign currency sales by the National Bank and quasi-state-owned companies decreased significantly compared to last year's figures.
The transformation of the portfolio structure, which has been observed throughout 2025, is persisting. The increase in the share of gold in international reserves – both due to an increase in its physical volume and as a result of rising prices – was accompanied by a reduction in the share of reserves held in foreign currency.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
