The consumer price dynamics observed in December do not provide compelling evidence of a slowdown in inflation. Food products continue to make the largest contribution to annual inflation, while the contribution of paid services exhibits a gradual decline.
Pro-inflationary sentiments among the population remain strong, while the structure of inflation expectations has remained broadly stable, with the overwhelming majority of respondents not anticipating a slowdown in inflation, while uncertainty in assessments remains elevated. This reinforces the possibility of maintaining the base rate at its current level until the end of the first half of 2026, as announced by the National Bank.
External factors, excluding geopolitical risks, are predominantly disinflationary, while money supply at the end of the year is showing explosive growth once again. Furthermore, the state budget planned for 2026, given the commitment to fiscal discipline, is capable of reducing inflationary pressure stemming from fiscal policy. Given these conditions, AERC forecasts a continued deceleration of inflation in the first quarter of 2026.
At the end of 2025, FX market turnover increased sharply, accompanied by moderate volatility in the USD/KZT exchange rate. Meanwhile, foreign currency sales by the National Bank and quasi-state companies decreased in both absolute and relative terms.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
