Monetary Snapshot of Kazakhstan (July, 2026)

Annual inflation continued to slow down, although monthly price growth remained elevated. In June, annual inflation declined from 10.4% to 10.3% (YoY), while monthly inflation accelerated from 0.7% to 0.8% (MoM). The moderation in the annual rate was largely attributable to a high base effect, particularly in the food segment. At the same time, the pace of decline in annual inflation is gradually slowing, which may indicate that the disinflationary impulse is fading. This is also supported by the trend in core inflation, which remained unchanged at 11.3% (YoY).

Households’ inflation expectations increased. Overall, households’ inflation expectations showed no significant improvement over the past year: the only notable decline of 2.2 percentage points in April 2026 was almost entirely offset by increases over the following two months.

The base rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage point. On July 24, 2026, the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) reduced the base rate from 17.0% to 16.75%. The future path of the base rate will depend on inflation dynamics and the balance of risks, while any deviation of actual fiscal and quasi-fiscal parameters from the announced targets may prompt a reassessment of the monetary policy stance.

The tenge’s depreciation in June gave way to appreciation in July. Meanwhile, the volume of foreign currency sales by the National Bank and the quasi-public sector in the domestic foreign exchange market declined. This decrease was partly attributable to some operations being conducted outside the foreign exchange market (see the slide for further details).

AERC inflation forecast. Inflationary factors remain mixed. Accelerating inflation in Russia poses risks of higher imported inflation, whereas declining consumer prices in the euro area and China have the opposite effect. The appreciation of the tenge represents an additional disinflationary factor. AERC projects annual inflation to slow to 9.99% by October, while monthly inflation is expected to remain elevated.

Kazakhstan’s international reserves declined over the month. As of May 31, 2026, international reserves amounted to USD 67.3 billion, decreasing by 0.3% over the month but increasing by 3.0% since the beginning of the year. The value of gold holdings within the reserves reached USD 52.6 billion, while foreign currency assets and securities amounted to USD 12.5 billion.

The loan portfolio is growing, but new lending is declining compared with 2025. In May, total new loan issuance decreased by 4.1% (YoY). The decline was driven primarily by lower lending to households: new household loans fell by 9.6% compared with May 2025. The annual growth rate of new household lending has been slowing since the beginning of 2026. Thus, the positive dynamics of the loan portfolio since the beginning of 2026 have been driven primarily by growth in new lending to businesses.

Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.