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Annual inflation has begun to show early signs of moderation. This is also confirmed by the dynamics of core inflation. At the same time, the current decline in the annual rate is largely driven by a high base effect from last year, while monthly price growth remains elevated.
Inflation expectations remain volatile and elevated. At the same time, inflation expectations of professional market participants are declining, and the National Bank has revised its inflation forecast downward.
The base rate has remained unchanged. The National Bank maintains a firm anti-inflationary position, while signaling potential monetary policy easing in the second half of 2026. Simultaneously, the policy of withdrawing excess liquidity is beginning to affect the money market.
The tenge is strengthening against both the US dollar and the Russian ruble. This appreciation has been accompanied by a reduced presence of the National Bank and quasi-state companies in the foreign exchange market.
Inflationary factors are controversial. Kazakhstan’s international reserves continue to grow, while portfolio structure shows declining diversification and increasing dominance of a single asset class.
The dynamics of lending to businesses and households differ significantly, despite broadly similar average borrowing costs for corporate and consumer loans.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
