In August, monthly inflation accelerated to 1.0% (MoM), thereby ending a five-month period of deceleration. Annual inflation reached 12.2% (YoY), rising by 0.4 percentage points over the month.
External and domestic inflationary pressures are developing inconsistently. AERC expects September inflation to reach 0.87% (MoM), or 12.71% (YoY). Inflation is projected to ease slightly to 12.67% (YoY) in October and 12.56% (YoY) in November.
One-year ahead inflation expectations eased slightly, declining from 14.2% in July to 13.6% in August. Long-term expectations remained higher at 14.2%, exceeding short-term projections. At the same time, the level of uncertainty continues to moderate.
Throughout August, the tenge remained broadly stable against the US dollar and the Russian ruble, with a tendency toward appreciation against the ruble emerging in September. Foreign-exchange market turnover contracted by 19.3% (MoM), while the share of foreign-currency sales by the National Bank and quasi-sovereign companies decreased from 32.0% to 28.8%.
As of 1 August 2025, gross international reserves stood at USD 52.1 billion. Gold remains the largest reserve asset at USD 32.8 billion, with its value rising by 1.7% (MoM) on the back of higher global prices.
Read more in the Monetary Snapshot.
