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We reiterate that the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan has not published data on the execution of the state budget for January – April 2026 (as of the publication of this review, the January – April data are still missing). Instead, data for January – May 2026 were published ahead of schedule and had already been reviewed in the previous issue of the SED. Given that data for January – June 2026 are also unavailable as of the date this review was prepared, this issue presents the key findings of the analysis for January – May 2026 once again.
In addition to budget statistics, the current issue includes a new section dedicated to the dynamics of government securities trading volumes on the KASE. Moving forward, the analysis of the government securities market data will be published in the SED on a regular basis. In January – May 2026, government securities trading volume on KASE increased compared to the previous year. A significant inflow of foreign investment into government securities remains one of the factors strengthening the tenge.
The foreign currency assets of the National Fund are growing. The decline in asset value observed in March was fully compensated for. As of the end of May, the volume of the National Fund's foreign currency assets reached USD 66.0 billion, increasing by USD 2.1 billion, or 3.4%, since the beginning of the year. The primary driver of this growth was the appreciation of assets, which accounted for 88% of the total increase. The remainder of the growth resulted from inflows into the National Fund (excluding investment income) exceeding withdrawals.
Economic growth demonstrates an acceleration. Following the results of January – May 2026, the Short-Term Economic Indicator rose to 104.3% (YoY) up from 104.2% (YoY) in January – April 2026. The main contribution to growth came from manufacturing, construction, trade, transport and warehousing.
Despite high oil production levels in May, the January shutdown at the Tengiz field continues to weigh on the indicators in annual terms. In January – May 2026, production turned out to be 10.2% (YoY) lower than the figures for the same period last year. This is reflected in the negative dynamics of the mining industry and freight turnover. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan continues to exceed the quotas established for the country under the OPEC+ agreement.
Investment activity maintains positive dynamics. Fixed capital investment in January – May 2026 increased by 7.0% (YoY). Enterprises’ own funds remain the primary source of financing. At the same time, the contribution of budget funds, which was one of the key drivers of investment growth in the first half of 2025, became negative this year.
Foreign trade turnover growth is slowing down. In January – April 2026, foreign trade turnover increased by 7.9% (YoY) following a growth of 10.5% (YoY) in January–March 2026. More recent data from the State Revenue Committee of the Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Kazakhstan on trade with non-EAEU countries also indicate a slowdown in growth. The growth of foreign trade turnover in January – May 2026 amounted to 1.9% (YoY) against 5.6% (YoY) in January – April 2026.
Read more in the Socio-Economic Development Review.
