To initiate a subscription, please follow the link below:
In 2026, the state budget started the year with positive revenue execution. At the same time, strong overperformance of local budget revenues has been accompanied by a shortfall in republican budget revenues. Revenue growth at the local level was driven primarily by tax receipts, although most regions continue to exhibit a high degree of dependence on transfers from the republican budget.
The foreign currency assets of the National Fund continue to increase. This growth has been driven primarily by investment income. At the same time, the structure of the Fund’s assets continues to show notable shifts in the distribution between the foreign currency and tenge-denominated components.
In January 2026, the real sector of the economy recorded a contraction. The most pronounced decline was recorded in oil production; nevertheless, Kazakhstan continued to exceed its OPEC+ quotas. The risk of further overproduction relative to Kazakhstan’s commitments under the OPEC+ agreement remains elevated.
Fixed capital investment is being financed primarily from enterprises’ own funds. The contribution of budgetary resources, which had dominated in the first half of 2025, turned negative. Against this backdrop, the first signs are emerging of a shift in the role of bank lending.
According to the results of 2025, external trade turnover showed positive growth. At the same time, Kazakhstan increased imports while reducing the volume of exports. The most notable divergence in external trade dynamics was observed in trade with Russia.
Read more in the Socio-Economic Development Review.
