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State budget revenue performance improved, but the VAT shortfall widened. In January-September 2026, revenue reached 98.7% of plan, compared with 98.2% in January-August, primarily owing to local budgets. Republican budget revenue was in line with the plan at KZT 16.5 trillion. Meanwhile, the VAT revenue shortfall widened from 8.2% to 10.4% of plan, despite a 36% increase in receipts (YoY). VAT and corporate income tax (CIT) shortfalls were offset by higher-than-planned receipts from crude oil export duties and the mineral extraction tax.
Local budget revenue continued to decline despite improved performance against the plan. Revenue totaled KZT 11.5 trillion in January-September, down by 7.1% (YoY), while revenue performance improved from 96.5% to 97.7% of plan. CIT and social tax receipts fell by 12.8% and 8.1% (YoY), respectively, while transfers from the republican budget declined by 17.9%. The decrease in CIT receipts may partly reflect the higher threshold for mandatory advance payments, which shifts some receipts to 2027.
The National Fund’s foreign currency assets declined over the month but remained above their level at the beginning of the year. At the end of September, they stood at USD 66.5 billion, down by 2.6% over the month but up by 4.0% since the start of the year. AERC estimates that investment performance accounted for around 88% of the monthly decline. Although the annual plan for budget transfers has already been fulfilled, the Fund’s resources will continue to be used this year, including KZT 1.5 trillion for the Infrastructure Development Fund.
Growth in the economy’s key sectors slowed slightly amid uneven sectoral performance. The Short-Term Economic Indicator stood at 104.8% in January-September, compared with 104.9% in January-August. Falling mining output continued to constrain growth. Manufacturing expanded by 8.6% (YoY), despite a 1.8% decline in metallurgy. Meanwhile, growth in construction work slowed from 15.6% to 11.5% (YoY), and rail freight turnover growth eased from 1.7% to 1.5% (YoY).
Oil and gas condensate production fell amid maintenance work at Karachaganak. Production declined to 7.7 million tonnes in September from 8.5 million tonnes in August, while output in January-September fell by 8.3% (YoY). The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that crude oil production excluding gas condensate averaged 1.86 million barrels per day (b/d) in September, exceeding the base quota by 232 thousand b/d. OPEC+ kept Kazakhstan’s December quota unchanged at 1.628 million b/d.
Investment growth slowed as budget financing continued to contract. Fixed capital investment rose by 7.0% (YoY) in January-September, compared with 8.1% in January-August, while budget financing declined by 27.5% in nominal terms. Investment in manufacturing increased by 40.1%, whereas investment in mining fell by 4.8%. Investment in manufacturing exceeded investment in mining, with the two sectors accounting for 13.9% and 13.5% of total investment, respectively.
Foreign trade growth was driven primarily by exports. In January-August, foreign trade turnover increased by 12.8% (YoY) to USD 103.0 billion, with exports rising by 19.5% and imports by 4.5%. High oil prices continued to support exports: the value of oil shipments to countries outside the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) rose by 13.5% (YoY), despite a 5.4% decline in physical volumes.
Read more in the Socio-Economic Development Review.
