Kazakhstan’s Macroeconomic Overview, July 2023

In the current review, AERC has improved its forecast for Kazakhstan's economic growth in 2023. Under the baseline scenario, AERC forecasts GDP growth in 2023 under the aggregate demand model at 4.4% (previously - 4.3%), under the aggregate supply model forecast also improved from 4.2% to 4.3%. Under the baseline scenario, due to the increase in maximum prices for fuel and lubricants, AERC forecasts inflation to accelerate to an average of 11.2% (against 10.2% in the report for April 2023), slight widening of the current account deficit due to faster import growth to -0.3% of GDP (-0.2% in the report for April 2023), the forecast for the state budget deficit remained unchanged at 4.1% of GDP.