AERC Continues to Monitor Oil Market Sentiment
New sanctions against Russia, imposed by President Biden shortly before leaving office, have introduced adjustments to oil price dynamics. The tightening of sanctions on nearly the entire Russian energy sector complicates international oil trade, raising questions about the future supply dynamics of “black gold.”
Kazakhstan reduced oil production in December, but the main reason for this decline was maintenance work at the Tengiz field. Overall, the country remains under close scrutiny by OPEC. Notably, OPEC+ has postponed the deadline for compensating excess oil production to the end of June 2026, despite the previous commitment to compensate for overproduction by October 2025, totaling 620,000 bpd.
In its January report, both OPEC and the IEA revised their forecasts upward for oil supply growth in 2025. Nevertheless, in the short term, AERC expects an upward trend in oil prices within the range of $81–84 per barrel, provided no new geopolitical shocks occur. However, it is important to emphasize that this projected trend is only for the short term.
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