AERC continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its March report, OPEC maintained its demand forecast for 2025. The IEA, in turn, revised its 2025 oil demand forecast downward. However, the IEA also lowered its projection for oil supply. Nevertheless, the agency still expects global oil supply to exceed demand by approximately 600,000 bpd in 2025.
During the period starting from February 18, 2025, Brent oil futures exhibited a downward trend, declining from an initial level of $75.4/bbl to $71.1/bbl. The average weighted price for the period from February 18 to March 18, 2025, amounted to $72.1/bbl, which corresponds to the earlier forecasted by AERC range of $70.7-76.8/bbl.
Despite current market conditions, OPEC+ remains optimistic, citing strong underlying fundamentals. Accordingly, OPEC announced a gradual easing of voluntary production cuts starting in April 2025, with oil output set to increase by 138,000 bpd each month. This decision reflects OPEC+’s confidence in the global economy’s ongoing recovery, which can accommodate increased oil supply. A complete lifting of voluntary production cuts is not expected before September 2026.
However, Kazakhstan still faces obligations to compensate for previous overproduction from last year. Despite this, Kazakhstan continues to produce above the OPEC+ quota. .
For more details, please refer to the attached file.
