The Applied Economics Research Centre (AERC) continues to monitor Brent crude oil price dynamics. In its regular report, OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 at 1.3 million b/d and increased its forecast for 2026 to 1.4 million b/d. The forecast revision was related to the expected improvement in economic dynamics in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
The outlook for non-OPEC+ oil supply growth also remained unchanged at 0.8 million b/d in 2025 and 0.7 million b/d in 2026, with the main contributions expected from the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina.
According to the IEA, global oil demand is projected to rise by 680 thousand barrels per day in 2025 and 700 thousand barrels per day in 2026, which is 40 thousand barrels per day lower than previous estimates. Meanwhile, global oil supply is expected to grow by 2.5 million b/d in 2025 and by 1.9 million b/d in 2026, significantly outpacing demand growth and potentially leading to an accumulation of global oil inventories.
Kazakhstan is redirecting oil exports from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline to the CPC after contamination of Azerbaijan’s benchmark crude disrupted export flows to the Mediterranean.
Taking into account current trends and key market factors, AERC forecasts moderately downward trajectory for Brent crude oil prices in the range of $56.8-$65.4/bbl.
